War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".