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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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